What if Barry Bonds had played without a baseball bat? | Chart Party


Comments • 4 089

  • Colin Pearce
    Colin Pearce  14 hours back

    but he gets on base

    • Aryanne_v2
      Aryanne_v2  21 hours back

      What if Barry Bonds played without taking performance-enhancing drugs?

      • Ultra Venia
        Ultra Venia  2 days back

        You forgot to add the hits. You have to turn the hits into non hits and add them to the denominator for a more accurate picture. Of course, I could be wrong, but it feels so right....

        • Ezequiel Acosta
          Ezequiel Acosta  2 days back

          Wait I think I know where his mistake was, the intentional walks shouldn't count as pitches throw outside the walk

          • Maverick
            Maverick  3 days back

            i don't think it's absurd as it sounds. first of all:its not really "bonds without bat" but really "bonds without swinging" because fear of home runs is still there.
            if bonds decided to trade in potentials for home runs, doubles and triples (which i imagine wouldn't be that many since he was massive and in his 40s) and be content on aiming for just single bases at a time, yeah he would've gotten a massive number of walks.
            but on base percentage by a guy with literally no his isn't as valuable as one by a guy with hits. because there is a reason pitchers are intentionally sending him to first.
            bonds on base isn't nearly as scary as bonds at bat. i know he used to be lightning quick and still has the baseball iq, but he is slow. he's not much of a threat once he is on base. when facing bonds, the pitchers' second best scenario WAS to get him on first, which is why the number is so high: pitchers kinda want him there, because it would be the least painful death.
            in basketball terms, its like calculating how many points shaq would get if he just focused on getting free throws. sure he would get a lot of points, but his team would also end a lot of posessions with just one point or less. now basketball has a penalty called foul out, which is why that tactic wasn't done by everyone(plus its cheap) but not the case in baseball. no foulouts for walking the guy too much.
            real life bonds' crazy on base percentage was accompanied by A LOT OF extra bases, but this guys .608 is just walks, not even singles (which may result in extra bases if the bases are loaded to begin with) as i said, there's a reason pitchers prefer walks to hits, and .608 based purely on walks is not nearly as impressive as .608 based on actual barry bonds plays.
            of course having said that, it would still be a crazy feat and a testiment to how dominant this guy was

            • Wes Jenlink
              Wes Jenlink  3 days back

              The reason Barry bonds was good was steroids

              • Jacob Amend
                Jacob Amend  4 days back

                His secret was roids

                • Jalen Johnson
                  Jalen Johnson  4 days back

                  Barry Bonds is the steroid G.O.A.T

                  • Paul Bradford
                    Paul Bradford  5 days back

                    I’ve studied Bond’s ‘04 season quite a bit and I agree with your conclusion.

                    He was beyond unbelievable.

                    • 661Nate
                      661Nate  6 days back

                      Secret? None. Reason? The clear, Andro, HGH, Testosterone... etc. oh yea and plus second to none talent

                      • Jason Buss
                        Jason Buss  6 days back

                        Full of crap. Lol

                        • Chicken Nuggs
                          Chicken Nuggs  7 days back

                          how do you come up with this stuff😂

                          • Joseph Jones
                            Joseph Jones  1 weeks back

                            PEDs, it's what's for dinner.

                            • Necessary Evil
                              Necessary Evil  1 weeks back

                              The fear they had of him was when he had a bat, take it away he would have struck out Everytime

                            • JRatt
                              JRatt  1 weeks back

                              I love this video, watched it multiple times but there is something you didn't account for (probably because it would have taken forever). You didn't account for those strikeouts or lack-there-of in games that would affect Bonds batting again in that game. If Bonds originally got on base with two outs but in your simulation struck out, then technically he might not have batted again in that game. Vice versa, if there was an inning where he struck out but you gave him a run then how does the rest of that inning play out? There's pretty much no way to answer that but those could be sources for some evidence in your simulation.

                              • Joe is now doge
                                Joe is now doge  1 weeks back

                                *Bacon Atheist you’re an idiot*

                                • Jason Springer
                                  Jason Springer  1 weeks back

                                  I have a feeling if he walked up to the plate without a bat the fear would deteriorate slightly

                                  • Will Sommer
                                    Will Sommer  1 weeks back

                                    His secret was steroids

                                    • Alex Raber
                                      Alex Raber  1 weeks back

                                      The best part about baseball is sitting in the outfield picking blades of grass.

                                      • Connor Hoagland
                                        Connor Hoagland  2 weeks back

                                        6:54 Actually makes sense if you're facing someone like Bonds. When the count is 3-1, logic says to swing for the fences, since you have one strike left to work with. Better to just cut your losses and put him on first.

                                        • Paul Casey
                                          Paul Casey  2 weeks back

                                          Juice or not, that man needs to be in the HOF. Best hitter of all time.

                                          • Cagon415
                                            Cagon415  2 weeks back

                                            Think about every player that has ever done steroids.

                                            And then think about the fact that it did nothing for them at all. 😂

                                            • brock smith
                                              brock smith  2 weeks back

                                              I love the JAZZ

                                              • kelloggswag
                                                kelloggswag  2 weeks back

                                                I think your math is full of crap too. I'm bad at math, so i can tell you how to tweak your formula. However, the best way to determine if your formula and simulation is genuinely accurate would be to run it maybe 100 times and then see how much variation you get.

                                                • Baseballfan2598 [Epic]
                                                  Baseballfan2598 [Epic]  2 weeks back

                                                  I wonder made a thing called steroids

                                                  • Caden Norris
                                                    Caden Norris  2 weeks back

                                                    What if Barry bonds didn’t do steroids

                                                    • MrBcardinal35
                                                      MrBcardinal35  2 weeks back

                                                      What if he used his roided arm as a pseudo bat

                                                      • Cloud Mime
                                                        Cloud Mime  2 weeks back

                                                        No one:
                                                        Literally not a single person:
                                                        Not even Barry Bonds:
                                                        Barry Bonds: *Is the greatest the sport has ever seen*

                                                        • Cory Pakalnis
                                                          Cory Pakalnis  2 weeks back

                                                          You are truly not a baseball fan of you think bonds did this by himself. He had a little help, "coughs" STEROIDS!!!!!!

                                                          • Explicable Nomin
                                                            Explicable Nomin  2 weeks back

                                                            I always hate these (but still give them thumbs up anyway) because they always ignore context. If he walked up to the plate with no bat, the pitcher would throw practice pitches right to the umpire every time.

                                                            He would almost NEVER get past home plate.

                                                            I get what the point of the video is though, so...i give it a thumbs up anyway.

                                                            • Yung Mexican
                                                              Yung Mexican  2 weeks back

                                                              Alright guys you heard the man, start a huge fight. But Barry's secret is a magical thing called... STEROIDS

                                                              • Nolan Barrios
                                                                Nolan Barrios  2 weeks back

                                                                His secret is steroids

                                                                • MattyIceyyy
                                                                  MattyIceyyy  3 weeks back

                                                                  put man in the hall

                                                                  • carlos sanchez
                                                                    carlos sanchez  3 weeks back

                                                                    No one knows what the secret to BB's success. ROFLMAO it's called STEROIDS. Dumbest vid on YouTube

                                                                    • Omar G
                                                                      Omar G  3 weeks back

                                                                      It's not just steroids though. No amount of steroids will make me good enough to be in the MLB because it requires more than strength to well on the plate.

                                                                  • al bundy
                                                                    al bundy  3 weeks back

                                                                    how your idiot he would strikeout ever time. this could never happen,, they would throw meat balls......secret......roids roids roids.....your a freeking nut.
                                                                    he was not on the all century team, he hit more than half his homers after the age of 35. hello, cheater, roiders... he will not make the hall, hall of losers....learn the game. he could of made the hall if not roids he would of hit 600 homers . he walked alot becasue liked trout he had nobody behind him. kent. ?? he never one a ring....he is a cheater , cheater , cheater......ruth did walk becasue of gehrig. take his bat away and again you bonehead would strikeout everytime...ROIDS< ROIDS< ROIDS

                                                                    • Helgamond Ratbone
                                                                      Helgamond Ratbone  3 weeks back

                                                                      Ioooooooooih ! Let’s admire the cheaters stats!!!! Not impressed. What about Bonds without ped??? That I could care about.

                                                                      • William Garrett
                                                                        William Garrett  3 weeks back

                                                                        It was drugs

                                                                        • Eddie Mathews
                                                                          Eddie Mathews  3 weeks back

                                                                          Well it would be different because the pitcher wouldn't be intimidated.

                                                                          • Arthur Kimes
                                                                            Arthur Kimes  4 weeks back

                                                                            So simulated Barry had a OBA of .608. Great. But his OPS was also.... .608. That's pretty bad for a major league hitter. He would be a liability in the lineup.

                                                                            • The Opponent
                                                                              The Opponent  4 weeks back

                                                                              You'd think at some point the pitchers would have noticed that Barry never swings, even if they do think he still has his bat.

                                                                              • Steve McQueen
                                                                                Steve McQueen  4 weeks back

                                                                                it was steroids, they work freaking magic he was also talented af dont get it twisted

                                                                                • Jake Nance
                                                                                  Jake Nance  4 weeks back

                                                                                  These videos make me feel like I’m taking a virtual tour of your notes and research it’s amazing

                                                                                  • The Saminater
                                                                                    The Saminater  4 weeks back

                                                                                    "No one knows his secret"
                                                                                    _s t e r o i d s_

                                                                                    • jamvan2k
                                                                                      jamvan2k  3 days back

                                                                                      DeeZeeOoo while I agree he was already a great hitter, he destroyed it by taking steroids later in his career sadly. So now he is looked at as being fake and will probably never be in HOF... the funny part is he was already a HOF player, but tainted his legacy because of the steroids sadly.

                                                                                      If you are already good, steroids can help increase power strength, extend workouts, and increase muscle overall strength, not to mention extending careers. Adding this capability would be scary when you are already and an excellent contact and power hitter... hence the dramatic increase in Bond’s power output in 2000’s and compared to the 90’s.

                                                                                    • John Salem
                                                                                      John Salem  4 days back

                                                                                      @DeeZeeOoo bruh I'm about to get in a huge fight with you

                                                                                    • lelz
                                                                                      lelz  1 weeks back

                                                                                      best era of baseball ever

                                                                                    • The Saminater
                                                                                      The Saminater  3 weeks back

                                                                                      @DeeZeeOoo very fair point tbh

                                                                                    • The Saminater
                                                                                      The Saminater  3 weeks back

                                                                                      @DeeZeeOoo true

                                                                                  • Harrison Ray
                                                                                    Harrison Ray  1 months back

                                                                                    Imagine going against a team of Barry Bonds

                                                                                    • Mrbeastmode
                                                                                      Mrbeastmode  1 months back

                                                                                      2 strikeouts looking?! Insane

                                                                                      • Edison Pellumbi
                                                                                        Edison Pellumbi  1 months back

                                                                                        Bonds' secret: roids

                                                                                        • B-Team Beast
                                                                                          B-Team Beast  1 months back

                                                                                          Should’ve just made the title “what if Barry bonds never swung the bat” instead of just saying the pitchers don’t know he doesn’t have a bat😂

                                                                                          • Michael Mahoney
                                                                                            Michael Mahoney  1 months back

                                                                                            So you're at the mercy of variance with the random number generation. You would have to simulate these at bats enough times each to decrease variance below a certain point (say 95% confidence).

                                                                                            Another way (which I've taken the time to do here) would be to apply the expected value of number of balls and strikes that occur in the ambiguous cases and simply see how many at bats flip as a result. Obviously this is complicated, as some at bats have multiple ambiguous pitches at different points during the at bat. 

                                                                                            One nice thing about the "walks" section is that GENERALLY there's only 1 ambiguous ball that causes a walk. So if that gets flipped, we can safely say it would've been a strikeout. Based on the probabilities you presented, 3 balls in the "walk" section should be strikes, thus removing 3 walks from the equation.

                                                                                            In the "strikeouts" section, 3 more orange strikes would be expected, but where to apply them? As 7 of the 16 orange balls cause walks, I'd say slightly less than half of our 5 would then flip a result. Remove 2 walks.For the yellows, 1 more strike would be expected. Of the 14 places we could apply this, 10 would change the result to a strikeout. Remove 1 more walk. Up to 6 now.

                                                                                            Finally, the "In play" section. Your simulation got 133 walks out of 335 AB. That is significantly LESS than what I would expect given the 58.7% of pitches are balls statistic you presented. Think about it. If 4/7 pitches are balls, that means walks to strikeouts should be about 50/50. It takes 4 balls to walk, 3 strikes to strikeout. 58.7% balls is quite close to 4/7, in fact it's a bit more. So if half of these 335 AB's were walks, my final estimate would come out to 28 more walks than you had. A 639 OBP. However, this neglects the fact that Bonds swung at at least 1 pitch in all of these at bats. Which leads me to my last point.

                                                                                            So where's the flaw? Perhaps generalizing to "58.7% of pitches are balls" was too broad. Every pitch is a different circumstance, something you addressed when you applied the situation where Bonds swung.

                                                                                            The moral? This is an incredibly difficult question that is impossible to answer accurately. I think you made a damn good attempt at doing it, though. In all likelihood, Bonds would still have had the highest OPB that season, perhaps even all time. The point of the video as I understood it was to prove that through fear alone, Bonds achieved very high stats in Major League Baseball. You certainly did that.